The Future of the 'Mobile Internet'

In the near future the number of mobile Internet access devices will surpass the number of PCs in the world. This obviously has a number of implications for the future of the Internet and what form it will take in this changed environment. A recent article in the Economist compares the transition to that from the telegraph to the 'speaking telegraph', or what we now call the telephone.

In both instances a technology which had been the preserve of specialist operators was passed into the hands of the public. And in both cases, this transition caused huge changes despite the underlying technology remaining largely unchanged. New usage models emerged as the user base changed.

The Story So Far

Many of the initial moves in the mobile internet space have assumed that users will wish to use their phones to access traditional web content services. This is the promise behind WAP, and as anyone who follows the industry knows, the results have been mixed. However, it is not the underlying technology that is at fault - but rather two factors that have combined to strangle WAP's initial promise.

Firstly, users do not enjoy reading from their mobile phone screens. All the evidence suggests that extensive content such as news reports is unlikely to be useful on mobile devices. There is a possibility that this may change if screens increase in size, but this must be balanced with the more realistic belief that compactness is more important to users than breadth of content.

Secondly, based on the Irish experience at least, WAP services are unreliable and frequently slow to be updated. Anyone who has ever used their phone to check the football scores will be familiar with the discovery that only last week's are listed. If these levels of service become typical, WAP loses its value and thus the user base.

Potential Mobile Internet Services

There is, however, no doubt that if WAP services were kept up-to-date (and thus relevant) many of the features they provide would be beneficial to users. This is particularly true of 'information rich' services such as weather reports, banking or the sports results mentioned above. It is particularly revealing that these are services for which the phone is already a popular access device, albeit through IVR applications at present.

Whether WAP proves to be the platform or not, the mobile Internet is likely to incorporate this type of content. The popularity of text messaging indicates that this type of communication will continue to provide the equivalent of mobile email, whilst interactive services such as banking or betting will gradually come online in the future.

What is apparent is that the mobile phone, as it is conventionally understood, need not be used for any of these tasks - and in fact is unsuited to them in many ways, with its clumsy text input mechanism and small display. Devices such as the Nokia 5510 or Blackberry are already emerging to tackle these issues. Accompanied by 'hands-free' headsets these are likely to replace conventional phones given time.

The Lesson - Think User Requirements

It seems obvious, but the future of the mobile Internet is best predicted by thinking about what sort of services are typically needed by those who are out and about. As mentioned above, it helps to look at the sort of information already obtained by phone.

Another approach is to consider what types of information, such as weather or train timetables, might be particularly important to someone on the end of a mobile device.

Either way, the winners in the mobile Internet space will be those companies who aim to meet these user requirements as effectively and efficiently as possible.